Republicans Win Governorships of Virginia and New Jersey
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Yesterday's vote was reflective of the same political dynamic that's been present since 2006; a reflexively anti-incumbent mood, regardless of political party, throughout the country. No politician should rest on their laurels at this point. Unless if you're in a overwhelmingly Democratic or Republican district or state, you're likely vulnerable. And even then, there's an element of unpredictability that you cannot account for, especially in times like this.
In other races, NYC mayor Mike Bloomberg, which the polls all showed was leading by 20-25 percentage points a few days before the election, barely eked out a win against a Democrat that had practically no local or national support. It was a moral loss for Bloomberg, who spent a lot of his own personal wealth to rack up a landslide win, probably in anticipation of an independent run for the Presidency. Then there's the congressional race in NY, where a Democrat took over a previously held GOP seat. The common thread here is that all incumbents had a bad night.
The political reality is far more complex than "Obama had a tough night".
National dynamics do impact statewide races. Right now, higher taxes, budget deficits, a lack of jobs and negative economic growth are all issues that the states are dealing with. It's a VERY DIFFICULT political environment to run in. It is natural that people would desire change given this, irregardless of who's in power. In short, "its the economy, stupid!!". As it always is with politics!
Being the nerd that I am, I like to sift through polling data and election returns, looking for key trends evident within the electorate. The one thing that was immediately evident to me, in both the VA and NJ races, was that the composition of the electorate was very different from last year, which ushered in Obama. The electorate was older, more conservative, and less ethnically diverse. Turnout was much lower among key demographics for the Democrats. That could indicate that energy within these groups are waining. That might be a trend that Obama's political team is going to need to watch for. Part of the problem is that many of these groups are not exactly reliable voters, meaning that they don't turn out in off year elections.
The Democrats didn't see high turnout among their voters but the real difference maker was independent voters, which went overwhelmingly for the challenger in all four races, including the Bloomberg race, where the incumbent made a strong appeal to those voters.
The Democrats still have an advantage nationally, but they're not as strong as they were last year. The initial euphoria after Obama's win has significantly worn off.
The Republicans are in a celebratory mood today, but there are other trends that don't benefit them. Gallup and Rasmussen both released polls recently showing that Republican party identification is down to 19.5%, the lowest its been since after Watergate. In 2004, that number was around 40%. Granted, Obama's political problems will benefit the Republicans in the short term, but their long term prospects remain bleak. With such low public support, I don't anticipate that they will retake Congress next year. They'll make gains, but those numbers don't suggest any huge move towards the Republicans.
I don't think they've recovered from their post-Bush slump. But because of a lack of alternative voices, they will win a few races over the next few years, as they channel the anti-incumbent mood to their benefit.
The major dynamic I saw in the polling data was that Independent party affiliation is up to 42% nationally. That's the highest I've ever seen it before. The Democrats have seen a decline of about 12 percentage points in party affiliation since last year, down to 33%. This only confirms the general anti-incumbent mood in the country. It also suggests that the political situation is very ripe for a strong third party movement. People are seeing that the economic crisis has a bi-partisaned origin and are looking to alternative voices.
In short, both political parties are in deep trouble. Their rank and file are disillusioned and independents aren't motivated. Both of the major parties need to be receptive to new ideas, or they are going to have to deal with a major threat to their duopoly, sooner rather than later most likely.
