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UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2009. Incumbent John McHugh (R) was appointed Secretary of the Army and resigned this seat. In a special election widely covered in the national media, Bill Owens (D) was elected in a three way race to succeed him on November 3, 2009. Owens was born in 1949 and is Catholic.

Obama won 52% of the vote in this district in 2008.


ORIGINAL COMMENT: This big mostly rural district is closely divided. Bush won 51% of the vote in 2004.

McHugh has won by large margins since his first election in 1992.

He was born in 1948 and is Catholic.

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2 days ago

I love Hilary, and I supported her campaign. She has great experience and is surround by the most intelligent people in our country.
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4 days ago

70% Guardians Of Privilege territory with three kinds of Republicans: The very rich, the haute bourgeoisie, and poor ignorami who still believe Bush attacked Iraq in retaliation for 9/11.



Point of information: This review originally read, "70% God's Own Party territory with two kinds of Republicans: The very rich, and poor ignorami who still believe Bush attacked Iraq in retaliation for 9/11."
votes 3 Helpful / 2 Funny / 2 Agree / 2 Disagree

4 days ago

Grayson was largely elected on Obama's coattails last year. He benefited very strongly from high turnout in Orange County among Puerto Rican and South American voters, who don't usually turn out strongly, and when they do are generally regarded as swing voters. There's a very strong new immigrant population in the Orlando area.

These dynamics suggest that Grayson might be in political trouble next year. He's not going to have strong Democratic turnout next year like he did in 2008. This is also a Republican district, drawn by the legislature specifically for the party. It's changing, but it isn't really that Democratic. He also has a tendency to get into partisan fights, which will almost certainly attract a strong response from the Republicans, likely in the form of a strong competitor back in his district.

But what benefits Grayson is strong fundraising totals along with generally iconoclastic political stands. He's pushed very hard over the past few months for Federal Reserve transparency, salary restrictions for bailed out CEO's, and health care. Those views aren't a negative necessarily in today's political environment.

All this suggests that Grayson's seat will likely be one of the most competitive next year. This race is really a microcosm of the political terrain that Democrats are going to have to traverse next year as they hold on to their gains, especially in swing districts like this.
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4 days ago

UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2009: Suzanne Kosmas (D) easily won this seat by beating incumbent Republican Thomas Feeney with 57% of the vote in 2008. McCain won this district in 2008 with 51% of the vote. Kosmas was born in 1944 and is Methodist.


UPDATED OCTOBER 14, 2008:  In 2006 incumbent Republican Thomas Feeney's victory margin declined to 58%,  a danger sign, and the Democrats have poured resources into this race.  This is only a marginal Republican seat and the Democrats have a good chance this year.  Watch this seat for a Democratic gain.

ORIGINAL COMMENT:  This district has a growing Democratic presence because of demographic change. Bush won 55% of the vote here in 2004.

Feeney has been easily elected in this this new district. He won over 60% of the vote in his first election in 2002 , was unopposed in 2004, but fell to 58% in 2006.

He was born in 1958 and is Presbyterian.

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4 days ago

UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2009. Another sex scandal in this district caused it to change politics again. Tom Rooney (R) crushed incumbent Democrat Tim Mahoney in 2008 with 60% of the vote. McCain won 52% of the vote in this district in 2008. Rooney was born in 1970 and is Catholic.


UPDATED OCTOBER 15, 2008: There must be something in the water in Central Florida. On October 13, 2008, ABC News reported that Mahoney had agreed to a $121,000 payment to a former mistress who worked on his staff and
was threatening to sue him. You well remember, gentle readers, that Mahoney suceeded Mark Foley (R) who had his own sex scandal. The GOP may well pick up this seat.

UPDATED COLUMBUS DAY, 2008: Although this is a district that leans Republican, the Democrats should hold it in 2008 because of incumbent Tim Mahoney and the flagging McCain camaign in Florida. The Dems grabbed this seat in 2006 because of the Mark Foley pederast scandal.

UPDATED AFTER 2006 ELECTIONS: The Democrats picked up this seat by about 1% of the vote following the Mark Foley fiasco a few weeks before the election. Tim Mahoney (D) was the winner.

Mahoney was born in 1956 and is United Methodist.


UPDATE: This is the district of the latest pederast to be rooted out of Congress, the un-lamented Mark Foley. This could be the straw that breaks the camel's back and ensures that the Democrats win control of the House.

This is more marginal territory in southern Florida where Bush won 54% of the vote in 2004.

Mark Foley first won in 1994 but has won easily in all his elections. He was born in 1954 and is Catholic.

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4 days ago

UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2009: Incumbent David Weldon (R) retired in 2008 and Bill Posey (R) was elected in his place. Posey won 53% of the vote and McCain won 51% of the vote in this district in 2008. Posey was born in 1947 and is Methodist.


ORIGINAL COMMENT: Bush won 57% of this Space Coast district in 2004. It is starting to gain some Democratic strength as the democraphics change.

Incumbent Republican David Weldon first won in 1994 and had a couple of close races in the 1990's. After reapportionment, he has had no problems winning in 2004 with 65% of the vote.

He was born in 1953 and is Christian.

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4 days ago

UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2009: Democrat Alan Grayson defeated incumbent Republican Ric Keller in 2008. Grayson won with 52% of the vote and Obama won this district in 2008 with 52% of the vote. Grayson was born in 1958 and is Jewish.

UPDATED COLUMBUS DAY, 2008: Incumbent GOP congressman Ric Keller is in big trouble in this district. In addition to the the growing Democratic strength here, the collapse of the McCain campaign in Florida should hand this district to the Donkeys.

PREVIOUS COMMENT:  The Democrats are gathering strength in this district. Bush won 55% of the vote here in 2004.

Incumbent Republican Ric Keller won his first race in 2000 with just 51% of the vote, but has been easlily elected since.

He was born in 1964 and is Methodist.

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4 days ago

UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2009: The GOP did lose its last house seat in New England in 2008 when Jim Himes (D) upset long time incumbent Chris Shays (R). Himes won with just a little over 51% of the vote while Obama was winning 60% of the vote in this district. Himes may be a target of the GOP in 2010. Himes was born in 1966 and is Presbyterian.

UPDATE: COLUMBUS DAY, 2008:  The GOP could lose its last House seat in New England in 2008 with the potential Obama upcoming landslide election.

UPDATE: Shays was re-elected in 2006, but now he is the sole Republican member of the U. S. House of Representatives in the six New England States.

ORIGINAL COMMENT: This is liberal Republican eastern suburbs territory. Kerry won 52% of the vote in 2004.

Shays first won a special election in 1987 and has breezed to victory up to 2004 when he was held to 52% of the vote. He had strong opposition and she may run in 2006.

He was born in 1945 and is a Christian Scientist.

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4 days ago

UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2009: Incumbent Tom Tancredo (R) retired and Mike Coffman (R) succeeded him in 2008. Coffman won with 61% of the vote and should easily hold this seat in the future. McCain won 53% of the vote in this district in 2008. Coffman was born in 1955 and is Methodist.


UPDATED:  September, 2008.  Incumbent Republican Tom Tancredo made a short run for the presidency in 2008 and is not seeking re-election.  This is a strong GOP district and it would take a major political earthquake for the Democrats to win.  Still, Tancredo never did that well in this district.  I would put this on the back burner to watch.  It would be a major upset for the Democrats to win, but not unforseeable.


ORIGINAL COMMENT:  This strongly GOP district gave Bush 60% of its vote in 2004. Incumbent Republican Tom Tancredo has run four races and only won over 60% of the vote in 2002. He had 59% in 2004.

Tancredo was born in 1945 and is Presbyterian.

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