I expect that John Kerry will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. The only way he won't be nominated is if a very bad scandal comes out. That leaves the question of his electability versus George Bush. I hate to issue political odds, but if I were betting in Vegas over who'd win a Kerry-Bush matchup, I would say that Bush wins. It will be a very close election however. John Kerry is no Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale, or George McGovern. When the Republicans throw their hit squads at him, he is going to hit back hard. And he has the money to hit back too. I've personally always liked John Kerry and his record. In many respects, I am much more conservative than he is, indeed I'm a Republican, but he's not one of these doctrinare liberals like Ted Kennedy, so I can definitely cast my vote for him in the next election. He voted for a balance budget, he's a free trader, solid on defense matters. I definitely believe that Kerry would be a solid president, probably better than the current occupant of the White House which I voted for back in 2000. Kerry however has a perception problem, one that most Senators who have run for president in the past have had to deal with. He drones on and on, he's not concise in his speeches, which are nothing electrifying by the way. The best advice that I got came from a local politician I know who told me to make my speeches short and sweet. Don't ramble for 15 minutes on something dumb. Make your point, make it an enlightening one and go. He seems too much of an elitist, a guy with a chip on his shoulder. Politics is perception driven, the nicest guy is the one who always win. Bush might be a bumbler, a person of limited vision, but he's a nice guy, he makes people feel safe and that's what he has going for him going into the election. Kerry has to build up his national security credentials and shed the Boston Brahmin coat. This election is going to turn on winning the Midwest and that kind of stuff doesn't fly in those areas. Additionally Kerry is going to have to pick up some Southern states if he expects to have any realistic chance at winning the White House. From looking at the polls, it's apparent that he can win Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and maybe Florida. If Bush can use cultural wedge issues like gay marriage to his advantage in Southern Bible Belt states, then he will sweep the region once again. If he can't, jobs, economy and foreign policy will take the stage in these states. If this happens, Kerry will do better in the region and he'll win the election. So it all depends how he conducts himself in this election. He has to stay on his feet and not allow the Bush campaign to define him. The big problem Bush has is that he is losing the support of Independent voters and Democrats are almost completely against him. There are very few Democrats publicly supporting Bush. The cultural conservatives and evangelicals are going to turn out for George Bush, irrespective of his failures as President. They are a poignant force in modern US politics, but Kerry will win the Democratic base along with a majority of independent voters, giving him a solid chance. I believe that it will be a very close election; I really can't tell you who will win, but Bush remains the odds-on favorite.