It will be close, no doubt about it. This isn't good news for Bush. An incumbent at this point ought to hold a significant lead in the polls, but so far it seems as if we're heading towards a photo finish, like in 2000. It doesn't bode well for the President that he hasn't been able to define the agenda in the last few days of the campaign, which have been marred by bad news. The Bush campaign wanted to leave voters with the impression that Kerry was weak on defense matters as they go to the polls, but events have intervened apparently. One big difference between Truman and Bush was that Truman was riding a wave of good news going into the 1948 elections: the Berlin Airlift was turning out to be a smashing success and the economy was performing solidly. Bush seems to be in a very tight corner. Also the polls had been trending upward for Truman, there is no such motion for Bush at this point. It'll be close, but Bush will lose at the end of the day.
