I'm almost certain that the first black president will be a Republican. Because blacks vote in overwhelming numbers for Democrats (85-90%), a black Democrat would likely not do any better in a nationwide election than white Democrat, and a Democrat has not won a majority (50% + 1 vote) since 1976 (bearly, Carter got 50.06%). Studies show that if Republicans were to gain 25% of the black vote consistantly, Democrats would never win a nationwide election. Therefore, if Republicans could peel away an additional 15% of the black vote, you get a Republican landslide. A black Republican would not even need to win the overall black vote to win the election. But a black Democrat would need to peel away conservative-leaning independents, and since most prominant black Democrats are far more liberal than America as a whole, forget about that happening.
