The 2008 Barack Obama Campaign 5

Obama has run a surprisingly strong campaign. He's kept up with Hillary's campaign throughout the entire process. She still has the party insiders behind her, but Obama is stronger that some imagine. Genghis is correct that Hillary has a majority of "superdelegates" behind her, but Obama isn't that far behind on that count either. The party establishment is fairly divided. There is a chance that Obama can take the nomination, but it won't be without a fight.

I don't think he's ready for the top job though; if he's elected, he'll struggle early on, for he doesn't have enough political experience for that high office. He's still too idealistic. He speaks with very high rhetoric, but where's the substance to his arguments? Obama in some of his speeches sounds almost messianic in his message. A little creepy if you ask me! Ultimately these will be Hillary's argument against Obama, and it is a very effective one. Also identity politics plays a large role in the primaries--and that favors Hillary. She'll win the big states with a combination of union support, white moderates, and Hispanics. Obama will carry the intellectuals, liberals, and blacks. Clinton's support is more organized, therefore, she will likely win the nomination.

UPDATE: Obama has run a solid campaign, from an organizational approach. What impresses me the most is how well they have adapted to the political environment. Obama has gotten more specific in his speeches, and that is helping him gain the confidence of voters in states like Indiana and Pennsylvania, which were out of reach just a few short weeks ago. Also his handling of the Rev. Wright controversy was competent, even if it left some questions in the minds of some people. He's run a solid campaign in almost every aspect.