This isn't as big of a story as many believe it to be. The story here is that apparently Castro's health is so poor that he had to give up his formal power. That in and of itself is very significant. However, power was passed on to his brother Raul Castro, who at least symbolically is more moderate than his brother. Don't expect any broad based change in Cuba until Fidel passes this mortal realm though. Even though he resigned the Presidency, he is still head of the Communist party in Cuba, which means that his ideological influence will be felt in most major decisions.

Change will happen once both Castro brothers are gone from the scene. I've heard that people within the country are anxious for change. The citizens of Cuba are tired of the chronic shortages and the lack of economic opportunity that communism affords them. Things aren't good in Cuba, nor have they been since the fall of the Soviet Union. The key question to ask is whether any sort of transition from totalitarianism to democracy will be relatively peaceful. The country's political history pre-Castro was defined by civil war; in fact, there were at least 3 between 1902-1959! It would be surprising, given precedent, if there were no violence in any sort of transition to democratic rule. The people want more freedom, but they are also afraid of losing the peace. Ultimately if the regime holds on after the passing of the Castro brothers, expect that the new leaders will embrace a Chinese type of communism. Strong on economic freedoms, but continuing to hold on to old forms of political repression.