How to rate US cities

reviewed by Robert57

Is there a statistical way to determine what kind of people live in a city?

Robert57
02/18/2012

How to rate US cities 5

This is a statistical rating of cities I developed after a lot of research. My goal was distinguishing good from bad cities when evaluating job offers. The underlying premise is that pleasant, progressive, educated people live in cities with income growth; unpleasant, change-resistant people are left behind in places that are in decline. Movement of people from dying to growing cities, called brain drain, accelerates the cities' negative and positive growth rates.

I started with this table of per capita personal income from Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Commerce Department:
http://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2012/02%20February/D%20P ages/0212dpg_j.pdf

I added the column for personal income in 2003 from this table:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/lapi/mpi_n ewsrelease.htm

Then I applied this formula: =((((E5-J5)/J5/7)+1)^6)*E5/54000
E = 2010 per capita income
J = 2003 "
The formula is predicting income six years hence, in 2016, and normalizing it against a goal of $54K.

Verification was against 16 cities I worked in between 1998 and 2009, of which I judged 8 bad and 8 good. The formula predicted 15 out of 16 correctly.

Good: Chicago (twice), Albany NY, NYC, NJ, Minneapolis, Houston, Washington DC

Bad: Greensboro, Bentonville, St Louis, Champaign, Akron, Orlando, Jacksonville FL, Pittsburgh (formula says good)

Ratings follow. I deleted anomalies caused by hurricane Katrina.

Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT................................. 1.79
Midland, TX ................................................... ................ 1.77
Casper, WY ................................................... ................ 1.6
Naples-Marco Island, FL ............................................... 1.59
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA ........................... 1.47
Jacksonville, NC................................................. ........... 1.4
Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL ............................................ 1.4
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV ....... 1.39
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA .......................... 1.38
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA..........1.33
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH............................... 1.3
Barnstable Town, MA ................................................... . 1.3
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT..................... 1.26
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA ....................................... 1.24
Trenton-Ewing, NJ ................................................... ...... 1.24
Fayetteville, NC ................................................... .......... 1.22
Baltimore-Towson, MD .................................................. 1.21
Bloomington-Normal, IL ................................................ 1.21
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA.......................................... 1.19
Napa, CA................................................. ...................... 1.19
New Haven-Milford, CT ................................................. 1.17
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX................................ 1.16
Cheyenne, WY ................................................... ........... 1.16
Ocean City, NJ................................................. .............. 1.15
Boulder, CO................................................. .................. 1.13
Anchorage, AK ................................................... ........... 1.12
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA........................ 1.12
Honolulu, HI ................................................... ............... 1.11
Santa Fe, NM ................................................... ............. 1.1
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD.......... 1.1
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA .......................... 1.09
Norwich-New London, CT ............................................. 1.09
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA ........................... 1.08
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI............................... 1.07
Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL ..................................... 1.07
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA ..................... 1.07
Pittsburgh, PA................................................. ............... 1.06
Manchester-Nashua, NH............................................... 1.06
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO ..................................... 1.06
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL .................. 1.06
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL............................................ 1.05
Worcester, MA................................................. .............. 1.04
Great Falls, MT................................................. ............. 1.04
Rochester, MN ................................................... ........... 1.04
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI ................... 1.04
Charlottesville, VA ................................................... ...... 1.04
Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME ........................ 1.03
Bremerton-Silverdale, WA ............................................. 1.03
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY ....................................... 1.03
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC................................................ 1.03
Pittsfield, MA ................................................... .............. 1.03
Olympia, WA................................................. ................. 1.02
Bismarck, ND ................................................... ............. 1.02
Victoria, TX................................................. ................... 1.02
Madison, WI ................................................... ............... 1.01
Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX ....................................... 1.01
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX.................................... 1.01
Longview, TX................................................. ................ 1
Salinas, CA ................................................... ................ 1
Tulsa, OK................................................. ...................... 1
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA .................. 1
Peoria, IL................................................. ...................... 1
Canton-Massillon, OH ................................................... 1
Odessa, TX ................................................... ................ 1
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL ............................ 1
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY .................... 1
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA ............................................ 1
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI ............................ 0.99
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC ............. 0.99
Burlington-South Burlington, VT.................................... 0.99
Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA....................................... 0.98
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA................................ 0.98
Decatur, IL................................................. .................... 0.97
Sioux Falls, SD................................................. ............. 0.97
Columbus, GA-AL ................................................... ...... 0.97
Billings, MT................................................. ................... 0.97
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA........................................ 0.97
Fairbanks, AK................................................. ............... 0.96
Oklahoma City, OK................................................. ....... 0.96
Savannah, GA ................................................... ............ 0.96
Kansas City, MO-KS................................................. ..... 0.96
Fargo, ND-MN ................................................... ............ 0.96
Alexandria, LA ................................................... ............ 0.96
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA................................. 0.96
San Angelo, TX ................................................... .......... 0.95
Tyler, TX ................................................... ..................... 0.95
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX............................................. 0.95
Kingston, NY ................................................... .............. 0.95
Wichita Falls, TX................................................. ........... 0.95
Corpus Christi, TX................................................. ........ 0.95
St. Louis, MO-IL ................................................... ......... 0.94
Jacksonville, FL................................................. ............ 0.94
Richmond, VA................................................. ............... 0.94
Cedar Rapids, IA ................................................... ........ 0.94
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR ..................... 0.94
Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, FL......... 0.94
Springfield, MA................................................. ............. 0.94
Charleston, WV ................................................... .......... 0.94
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA..................... 0.94
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH......................................... 0.94
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA.......................... 0.93
Punta Gorda, FL................................................. ........... 0.93
Hot Springs, AR ................................................... ......... 0.93
Texarkana, TX-Texarkana, AR....................................... 0.93
Lawton, OK................................................. ................... 0.93
Rochester, NY ................................................... ............ 0.92
Clarksville, TN-KY ................................................... ...... 0.92
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA ................................................... .... 0.92
Amarillo, TX................................................. .................. 0.92
Tucson, AZ ................................................... ................. 0.92
Lebanon, PA ................................................... ............... 0.91
Salt Lake City, UT................................................. ......... 0.91
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL ............................... 0.91
Dubuque, IA ................................................... ............... 0.91
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY .............................................. 0.91
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL ................................... 0.91
Abilene, TX................................................. ................... 0.91
Iowa City, IA................................................. .................. 0.91
Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ ........................................ 0.9
Birmingham-Hoover, AL ................................................ 0.9
Wichita, KS................................................. ................... 0.9
Gainesville, FL ................................................... ........... 0.9
Jackson, MS................................................. ................. 0.9
Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, SC...................................... 0.9
Grand Forks, ND-MN ................................................... . 0.9
Rapid City, SD................................................. .............. 0.9
Elmira, NY................................................. .................... 0.9
Colorado Springs, CO ................................................... 0.89
Lewiston, ID-WA................................................. ........... 0.89
Huntsville, AL ................................................... ............. 0.89
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA .................................................. 0.89
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ ............................ 0.89
Bellingham, WA................................................. ............ 0.89
La Crosse, WI-MN................................................. ........ 0.89
Topeka, KS ................................................... ................. 0.89
Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA ............................................... 0.88
Racine, WI................................................. .................... 0.88
Elizabethtown, KY ................................................... ...... 0.88
Redding, CA................................................. ................. 0.88
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN.................................. 0.88
Port St. Lucie, FL................................................. .......... 0.88
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN ............ 0.88
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX............................. 0.87
Springfield, IL ................................................... ............. 0.87
Columbus, IN................................................. ................ 0.87
Roanoke, VA ................................................... .............. 0.87
Syracuse, NY ................................................... ............. 0.87
Sheboygan, WI................................................. ............. 0.87
Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC ............ 0.87
Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA............................................ 0.87
Lewiston-Auburn, ME ................................................... . 0.87
Carson City, NV................................................. ............ 0.87
Fort Collins-Loveland, CO............................................. 0.87
Sioux City, IA-NE-SD................................................. .... 0.87
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA ............................. 0.86
Memphis, TN-MS-AR ................................................... . 0.86
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL ........................... 0.86
Flagstaff, AZ................................................. ................. 0.86
Chico, CA ................................................... ................... 0.86
Bend, OR................................................. ...................... 0.86
Glens Falls, NY ................................................... .......... 0.86
Columbia, MO ................................................... ............ 0.86
Green Bay, WI ................................................... ............ 0.85
Lubbock, TX ................................................... ............... 0.85
Pascagoula, MS ................................................... ......... 0.85
Niles-Benton Harbor, MI ................................................ 0.85
Oshkosh-Neenah, WI ................................................... . 0.85
Utica-Rome, NY ................................................... ......... 0.85
Akron, OH................................................. ..................... 0.85
Reno-Sparks, NV ................................................... ....... 0.84
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC ........................... 0.84
Raleigh-Cary, NC ................................................... ....... 0.84
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, WA ................................... 0.84
Spokane, WA ................................................... ............. 0.84
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN................................................. 0.84
Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN................................. 0.84
York-Hanover, PA................................................. .......... 0.84
Ithaca, NY ................................................... .................. 0.84
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX.................................... 0.84
Appleton, WI................................................. ................. 0.84
Waco, TX................................................. ...................... 0.84
Sherman-Denison, TX .................................................. 0.84
Duluth, MN-WI................................................. .............. 0.83
Macon, GA ................................................... ................. 0.83
Eau Claire, WI ................................................... ............ 0.83
Grand Junction, CO................................................. ...... 0.83
Johnstown, PA................................................. .............. 0.83
Reading, PA................................................. .................. 0.83
Evansville, IN-KY................................................. .......... 0.83
Lincoln, NE................................................. ................... 0.83
Montgomery, AL ................................................... ......... 0.83
Jefferson City, MO................................................. ........ 0.83
Asheville, NC................................................. ................ 0.82
Binghamton, NY ................................................... ......... 0.82
Morgantown, WV................................................. .......... 0.82
Mobile, AL ................................................... .................. 0.82
Columbus, OH................................................. .............. 0.82
Lancaster, PA ................................................... ............. 0.82
Farmington, NM................................................. ............ 0.82
Missoula, MT................................................. ................ 0.82
Medford, OR................................................. ................. 0.82
Erie, PA................................................. ......................... 0.81
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ ......................................... 0.81
State College, PA ................................................... ....... 0.81
Wenatchee-East Wenatchee, WA ................................. 0.81
Winston-Salem, NC................................................. ...... 0.81
Fond du Lac, WI................................................. ........... 0.81
Eugene-Springfield, OR ................................................ 0.81
Wilmington, NC ................................................... .......... 0.81
Greensboro-High Point, NC .......................................... 0.81
Pine Bluff, AR................................................. ............... 0.81
Altoona, PA................................................. ................... 0.8
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC............................... 0.8
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL .................. 0.8
Coeur d’Alene, ID ................................................... ....... 0.8
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL................................... 0.8
Sandusky, OH ................................................... ............ 0.8
Wausau, WI................................................. .................. 0.8
Williamsport, PA ................................................... ......... 0.8
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH ................................... 0.8
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI ............................................ 0.8
Columbia, SC ................................................... ............. 0.8
Cumberland, MD-WV................................................. ... 0.79
Lawrence, KS ................................................... ............. 0.79
Tallahassee, FL ................................................... .......... 0.79
Ames, IA................................................. ....................... 0.79
St. Joseph, MO-KS ................................................... .... 0.79
Knoxville, TN ................................................... .............. 0.79
Owensboro, KY ................................................... .......... 0.79
Bangor, ME................................................. ................... 0.79
Albany, GA................................................. .................... 0.79
Salem, OR................................................. .................... 0.79
Corvallis, OR ................................................... .............. 0.79
St. Cloud, MN................................................. ............... 0.79
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO ....................... 0.78
Pueblo, CO................................................. ................... 0.78
Dothan, AL ................................................... ................. 0.78
Albuquerque, NM ................................................... ....... 0.78
Chattanooga, TN-GA................................................. .... 0.78
Lynchburg, VA ................................................... ............ 0.78
Las Cruces, NM................................................. ............ 0.78
Fort Smith, AR-OK ................................................... ..... 0.78
Florence, SC ................................................... .............. 0.78
Dayton, OH................................................. ................... 0.77
Winchester, VA-WV ................................................... .... 0.77
Johnson City, TN ................................................... ........ 0.77
Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL ......................................... 0.77
Idaho Falls, ID ................................................... ............ 0.77
Ocala, FL................................................. ...................... 0.77
Modesto, CA................................................. ................. 0.77
Tuscaloosa, AL ................................................... ........... 0.77
Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA .................................... 0.77
Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV ................................ 0.77
Salisbury, MD ................................................... ............. 0.77
Jonesboro, AR................................................. .............. 0.77
Ogden-Clearfield, UT ................................................... . 0.77
Lexington-Fayette, KY ................................................... 0.77
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI...................................... 0.76
Parkersburg-Marietta-Vienna, WV-OH .......................... 0.76
Prescott, AZ ................................................... ............... 0.76
Springfield, OH................................................. ............. 0.76
Rome, GA ................................................... .................. 0.76
Yuba City, CA................................................. ................ 0.76
Longview, WA................................................. ............... 0.76
Yakima, WA ................................................... ................ 0.76
Toledo, OH................................................. .................... 0.75
El Paso, TX................................................. ................... 0.75
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ .................................... 0.75
Battle Creek, MI................................................. ............ 0.75
Warner Robins, GA ................................................... .... 0.75
Wheeling, WV-OH ................................................... ...... 0.74
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA........................ 0.74
Jackson, TN ................................................... ............... 0.74
Lansing-East Lansing, MI.............................................. 0.74
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV................................................ 0.74
Fort Wayne, IN ................................................... ........... 0.74
Anniston-Oxford, AL ................................................... ... 0.74
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL........................................... 0.73
Boise City-Nampa, ID................................................. ... 0.73
Rockford, IL ................................................... ................ 0.73
Hattiesburg, MS ................................................... ......... 0.73
Ann Arbor, MI ................................................... ............. 0.73
Danville, IL................................................. .................... 0.73
Sumter, SC................................................. ................... 0.73
Kankakee-Bradley, IL................................................. .... 0.73
Gadsden, AL ................................................... .............. 0.73
Stockton, CA ................................................... .............. 0.72
Fresno, CA ................................................... ................. 0.72
Terre Haute, IN ................................................... ........... 0.72
Springfield, MO ................................................... .......... 0.72
Brunswick, GA................................................. .............. 0.72
Rocky Mount, NC ................................................... ....... 0.72
Goldsboro, NC................................................. .............. 0.72
Decatur, AL ................................................... ................ 0.72
Danville, VA ................................................... ................ 0.72
Kalamazoo-Portage, MI................................................. 0.71
Joplin, MO................................................. .................... 0.71
Hinesville-Fort Stewart, GA........................................... 0.7
Gainesville, GA ................................................... .......... 0.7
Burlington, NC................................................. .............. 0.7
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC ..................................... 0.69
Anderson, SC................................................. ............... 0.69
Michigan City-La Porte, IN ............................................ 0.69
Pocatello, ID ................................................... ............... 0.69
Holland-Grand Haven, MI.............................................. 0.69
Bakersfield-Delano, CA ................................................. 0.69
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI .......................................... 0.69
Champaign-Urbana, IL................................................. . 0.69
Athens-Clarke County, GA ............................................ 0.68
Bay City, MI ................................................... ................ 0.68
College Station-Bryan, TX............................................. 0.68
Bowling Green, KY ................................................... ..... 0.68
Valdosta, GA ................................................... .............. 0.68
Visalia-Porterville, CA................................................. ... 0.68
Greenville, NC................................................. .............. 0.68
Lafayette, IN ................................................... ............... 0.67
Saginaw-Saginaw Township North, MI.......................... 0.67
Morristown, TN................................................. ............. 0.67
Yuma, AZ................................................. ...................... 0.67
Dover, DE................................................. ..................... 0.67
Harrisonburg, VA................................................. .......... 0.67
Madera-Chowchilla, CA................................................. 0.67
Hanford-Corcoran, CA................................................. .. 0.67
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA ........................ 0.66
Cleveland, TN................................................. ............... 0.66
Janesville, WI ................................................... ............. 0.66
Merced, CA ................................................... ................ 0.66
Lima, OH ................................................... .................... 0.66
Anderson, IN ................................................... .............. 0.66
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA ......................... 0.65
Monroe, MI ................................................... ................. 0.65
Jackson, MI ................................................... ................ 0.65
Elkhart-Goshen, IN ................................................... .... 0.64
Logan, UT-ID ................................................... .............. 0.64
Mansfield, OH................................................. ............... 0.63
Muskegon-Norton Shores, MI ....................................... 0.62
St. George, UT ................................................... ........... 0.62
Cape Girardeau-Jackson, MO-IL................................... 0.62
Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conway, SC ............. 0.62
Auburn-Opelika, AL ................................................... .... 0.62
Greeley, CO................................................. .................. 0.61
Kokomo, IN................................................. ................... 0.61
Laredo, TX................................................. .................... 0.61
Muncie, IN ................................................... .................. 0.6
Provo-Orem, UT................................................. ........... 0.6
Flint, MI ................................................... ...................... 0.59
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX............................................. 0.59
Bloomington, IN................................................. ............ 0.54
Dalton, GA................................................. .................... 0.54
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX ...................................... 0.53

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By the Numbers