Afghanistan has always been a trouble spot because of geography. It stands right at the crossroads between East and West, and as such, it has always been an area that has been battled for by various people, from Alexander the Great through to today. The area has both Western and Eastern cultural antecedents and the area's main political organization is the tribe. This is not a centrally organized society, it is organized from the bottom up.
Conquering powers have consistently sought to domesticate this mountainous corner of the world, yet all have always left with their tails caught between their legs. Given this history, it is astonishing that we continue to commit US forces to the region in an apparent nation-building effort. Sure, we can continue to bomb Afghan villages, hunt al-Qaeda out in the provinces, build huge elaborate military bases and send drones to drop bombs on Pakistan, but it won't halt the attacks by Islamic militants. Terrorists and insurgent groups are not conventional forces, they don't play by the same rules of traditional warfare. These underground terrorist groups are highly flexible, moving from one destabilized region to the next as it changes shape and color. They plan and execute the next terrorist attack, whether it be in the Philippines, Indonesia, Britain, India, Spain, or Yemen then they fade back into the shadows.
In short, we are fighting the wrong enemy, using the wrong tools, on the wrong battlefield. Furthermore, the current strategy in Afghanistan is unsustainable and cannot succeed given the present political situation. The cost of the Afghanistan war is rising. Tens of thousands of Afghan civilians had been killed since the beginning of the conflict and that number is sure to rise on both sides of the conflict as Obama seeks to escalate the war.
During this war, we have stumbled upon a curious mix of armed groups that include drug dealers and traffickers (poppy seeds are the most profitable cash crop in Afghanistan), criminal gangs, tribal militias, death squads and mercenaries. In short, we are right in the center of a civil war that has been embroiling this country at least since the 1970's. The Pashtuns, who dominate the Taliban and are the traditional rulers of Afghanistan, are battling the Tajiks and Uzbeks, which dominate the current government, which is deeply corrupt, incompetent and weak; it doesn't even control a majority of Afghanistan's territory. It certainly cannot be sustained without American help.
Here's the reality: we are losing the Afghan war. When we invaded Afghanistan 8 years ago, they controlled about 80% of the territory. Today that percentage has crept up to over 50%, other areas are in tribal control, out of the grips of either the Taliban or the central government. The Taliban brazenly attacks targets public areas in the capital of Kabul, dominates the rural areas of the country, and regularly kidnaps foreigners for random. In short, it is not a very pleasant spot to land in, and its only getting worse.
No one seems to be able to articulate as to why we're in Afghanistan. Bush didn't do so clearly and neither does Obama. Is it to hunt down Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda? Is it to consolidate progress (however that's defined)? Have we declared war on the Taliban? Are we building democracy there? Are we "liberating" the women of Afghanistan? The absurdity of these questions, which in my view are used as thought terminating cliches and rhetoric, exposes the absurdity of this war. This confusion of purpose seems to mirror the confusion on the ground. We don't know what we're doing from a military standpoint. Here's the question we should be asking: what exactly are we doing in Afghanistan? It's a simple question, but one which isn't asked nearly enough.
Our military commanders know a lot about weapons systems and conventional warfare but know next to nothing about nuances of asymmetrical and irregular warfare. What always happens in Afghanistan is that we might secure a piece of territory, the Taliban withdraws, usually to sanctuaries in Pakistan. We declare the operation a success, but slowly the Taliban creep back into the "cleansed" territory. The roadside bombs continue to exact their deadly toll on our troops and civilians. And the Afghan people continue to suffer under the aegis of constant war for almost 30 years straight.
The whole situation is just downright tragic.
