Charlie Crist is very good at self promotion and taking non-controversial political stands. He's a good politician, but a so-so executive. No real substantive policy accomplishments to speak of. His standing peaked when he passed a statewide property tax cut back in early 2008, but his popularity has waned some since the economy began tanking.
Charlie doesn't want to rock the boat, which is sometimes necessary to get things done. He's very politically ambitious and does not want to offend any powerful special interest groups that might oppose him should he decide to run for President in a few years. The state has a huge insurance crisis, underfunded education, a state budget which looks bleak for the next few years, yet Charlie refuses to take these issues on. He picks the fights that are easy and popular, not the ones that need to be taken on.
He's decided to forgo a second term as governor to run for the Senate. Given Charlie's political talents, the Senate would probably be better fit for him. However, I suspect the reason why he's cutting and running from the job is that there's a time-bomb getting ready to explode at the State Board of Administration. The SBA invests funds for over 1 million state employees through a public pension plan, in addition to 1,000 state and local agencies. Over the past 2 years, losses have totaled over $50 billion, which at one point equaled 38% of the funds assets. Most of these losses are due to investments that no competent financial analyst would ever consider, mainly in derivatives and other risky financial instruments. Given that Orange County, CA went bankrupt in 1994 because of a default in derivative debt, there is no doubt that these instruments can cause a lot of damage to any government holding it.
Obama's stimulus program, which Charlie pushed hard for, even openly backing Obama publicly early on despite outcries from the party base, is covering up some of these losses, but as the debts come due over the next few years, it can possibly throw the state budget into a tailspin. Even with $3.5 billion in stimulus funds, we're still running a high deficit. Once the stimulus funds dry up by next year, we're going to be in big trouble, and the next governor will have to face the music.
Most people were stunned as to why Charlie would back Obama so strongly on the stimulus, given that it wasn't exactly political orthodox to do so, but he did it because he knew that the funds from the federal government would be sufficient to cover up the problems at SBA until he got out of office and was safely absconded in the Senate. The risk he took was that his support for the stimulus hurt him with conservatives, whom he needs to get elected to the Senate. He's now facing a strong primary challenge from a conservative candidate who might give him a run for his money.
As for SBA, that's for the next governor to worry about. It is the citizens of Florida that are going to be left to pick up the mess.
