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What is the leading cause of the federal deficit?

In 2000, the federal government recorded a record surplus of $86 billion on-budget, or $236 billion combined budget (this latter number includes Social Security surpluses). What is the leading cause for this number to change to the current projections of a $539 billion on-budget deficit or a $365 deficit on the combined budget?

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List added by eraser1997 on 7/27/2005
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