It didn't come as a surprise that Harper and the conservatives managed to secure a minority government.  Harper called the election because the weakening economic environment globally would have likely hurt the conservatives had he waited, and it turns out that he got in just at the nick of time.

Genghis has an excellent point about the 4-5 party parliamentary system that Canada has.  The liberals in Canada could win an election if they can get behind one party and form a coalition government.  Bloc Quebecois is really the key there, since Quebec is absolutely needed for liberals to form a governing coalition.  Conservatives are fairly unified, hence they were able to win this time around, although they might not be as lucky come 2010.

Watch for leadership changes within the Liberal party.  They need a dynamic, young leader that will help them win in more closely contested areas.  If they do this, they'll come back in two years. Dion simply can't cut it at the national level.  I don't foresee the NDP taking the lead anytime soon.

Although it won't go away any time soon, the Liberal Party has outlived its historical usefulness in Canada.  The Grits need to dissolve and part go to the right and part to the left.  The Conservatives and the NDP would therefore be the beneficiaries.

The anti-Canada BQ Party in Quebec will continue to cause minority governments until the Liberal Party goes away.  Canada can muddle through with a parliamentary government with three parties but not with four.

The UK has had three parties since WWI.  The rules are that you have to have two large and one small.

Canada is unique in that it has one irreconcilable ethnic party, BQ, a small lefto party, the NDP, a large left-center party, the Liberals and a large right-center party, the Conservatives.

Trudeau and Mulroney were able to win large chunks of the seats in Quebec and form solid majority governments.

The other PMs over the last forty years have not been so fortunate although there have been some majority governments.  The reaction against the Progressive Conservatives after Mulroney was an anomaly.

If the NDP could grab some of the left-leaning BQ vote in Quebec, that might allieviate the situation, but the NDP has been in a rut since its founding in the early 1960's.  The Conservatives need to make a breakthrough in Quebec also, a la Mulroney.  That doesn't seen possible as Mulroney was a unique conservative candidate having been raised in a Quebec mill town.

Two More Years!  Two More Years! Two More Years! 

The election proved that we are going to have to change the way we understand a minority Parlaiment if we are to continue in the Italian Style.  So long as we have a working 5 party system, coalition and deal making will have to be viewed as acceptable and not a future liability come the next campaign.  If a regional party can continue to consume 15 to 20% of the seats in Parlaiment, then the formula for winning will require that the Party in power must win upwards of 2/3 of the remaining seats to form a majority.  That's extremely rare in a Parlaiment outside of Alberta.  The electorate won't continue to tolerate an election every 18 to 30 months. 

Harper will be torn between being disappointed that he didn't breakthrough and encouraged by his steady, if turtle-like growth.  Layton will continue smiling for the portrait photographers until his party realizes that for all his polish, they are still stuck in the 30 seat range and are now in fourth place.  Duceppe will start contemplating what to do with his stature in Quebec, having gone as far as he can in federal politics and will likely start pursuing a run for Prime Minister of Quebec. Dion is working on his resume this morning.

Big news in Canada, less so anywhere else. Harper's Conservatives seemed a lock for a minority government at the beginning of the campaign, but a series of mis-steps, a surprising lack of disaster from the center-right Liberal opposition, surprising strength from the center left New Democrats, prevented this. On the plus side, historically minority governments are better for Canadians, regardless of who is prime minister, than majorities. On the down side, its probable that at least one, if not both of the leaders of the two leading parties (Conservative and Liberal) will be replaced before the next election in about two years.

I can't say as I'm surprised- do you think we could somehow influence what happens in the US? (Laughing).  I see Trudeau was elected in Papineau, QC and Elizabeth May- I really could not see the point of her- did worse than the "independents".  As far as a minority goess, I spoke with several people who indicated they were purposefully casting their vote in the hopes of this precise outcome (although I've wondered if everyone voted liberal to ensure a minority government. .yes, you get the picture).  I chose a more personal reason this time around to vote for the person I did- it had to do with how he responded to a friend of mine and mother of a soldier who died in Afghanistan as opposed to how the other two bungled things up.  (One wrote a form letter and basically inserted the wrong name several times throughout the letter, the other never took the time to respond at all- as well as a few other gaffes).  That, to me, was an issue of character. 

It would seem that Liberal leader Dion managed to find a way to go far enough left of the electorate to lose seats to the Conservatives and the NDP. If Quebec wasn't offended by the idea of punishing young criminals, Harper might well have gotten his majority. The leadership of the Liberals will change within days. As always, Canada will be just fine.