Hamid Karzai
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America's nominal puppet in Afghanistan. The last election in Afghanistan, held in August of this year, was so blatantly rigged that the US forced Hamid Karzai to accept a runoff election to be held next month against his second place opponent. No political parties were allowed to run. Only individuals supporting the US occupation were allowed on the ballot; furthermore the vote was conducted under the guns of a foreign occupation, a clear violation of international law.
The larger fraud was designed to give American and European audiences the impression that democracy was taking root in Afghanistan. But most Afghans knew that the result was rigged from the beginning. Most Pashtuns, the main ethnic group in Afghanistan, didn't even vote, either out of cynicism for the Western dominated government, or because the Taliban controls wide swaths of land where the central government lacks reach.
The entire affair turned out to be a huge embarrassment for Karzai and his Western backers. Of course, Karzai won, but his supporters went overboard in stuffing ballot boxes to avoid the potential of Abdullah Abdullah winning, who's another US ally. The Karzai and Abdullah camps are bitterly fighting over how to use US aid funds and drug money, both of which has contributed to high amounts of corruption within the country.
Right now, it looks like the Obama Administration is trying to force Karzai and Abdullah to accept a unity government. Keep in mind, that no one can understand how politics works in Afghanistan without understanding the role of ethnicity and tribal identification. There are five or six ethnicities represented within the country with hundreds of more tribal divisions. Afghanistan is really a loose federation of tribes; they identify more closely with their tribe than with the nation. Karzai is a Pashtun, but has no tribal identity. He lived and worked abroad as part of the Afghan ex-pat community before returning to the country after the US invasion. Most Pashtuns see him as a collaberator and a traitor, so he doesn't have a whole lot of legitimate support or connections there. Abdullah is a native Tajik, but he's seen as someone who speaks for the Tajik minority, which is more than Karzai, who doesn't represent the Pashtun political community in any way.
Including Abdullah in the coalition government will likely make Afghanistan even more unstable, as the majority Pashtuns will outright reject the government. Whatever limited support they have for the Western backed government will disappear. To top it off, Abdullah has some very unsavory friends from the Northern Alliance, former communists and Uzbek warlords, all of whom are involved in the drug trade (poppy's are Afghanistan's #1 cash crop).
Ironically enough, we are now allied with the communists, who are the Pashtun's enemies from the Soviet war. We provided aid for the Pashtuns, who are closely affiliated with the Taliban (another political organization we helped to create during the Soviet invasion as a bulwark against communism). Many in the Carter and the Reagan administrations believed that stoking Islamic fundamentalism would be a natural foil to atheistic communism. However in pursuing this short term tactic, we ended up creating al-Qaeda and other extreme political groups who in due time became America's enemy, especially when we became the occupying power.
Afghan politics is a labyrinth that can make anyone dizzy!!! Alliances shift overnight.
The Obama Administration has wanted to dump Karzai for some time, but cannot find a replacement as pliant but more politically effective. There has been some talk in Washington of replacing him with an American "chief executive officer" for the region. In other words, some would like to dispose of the Afghan government and exert direct military control. That obviously won't work out in the long term.
It took about two months for the US to force the runoff. They were more than willing to accept the result of the election until Karzai began talking with the Russians and the Chinese for military assistance. This was unacceptable for the US, as Afghanistan is really our forward base in South Asia, designed as a bulwark against increased geopolitical and economic influence from these two powers.
In short, great power politics in Asia is alive and well. And Karzai is just another in a long line of puppets holding up the artifice of political legitimacy. If the puppet doesn't dance at the US's command, they'll find a new one. Henry Kissinger once observed that many times being America's ally can be worse than being its enemy. Karzai, a former lobbyist for Chevron (Condoleeza Rice was also a member of the Board of Directors there) and a CIA asset is just another weak leader in a geopolitically important area installed to provide the impression of autonomy and self-determination.
The US is slowly but surely losing military position in Afghanistan, and we're now trying to blame the hapless and powerless Karzai for our woes. He's been called the "mayor of Kabul" because of the fact that he doesn't control much in the way of territory outside of the capital. Karzai has no real police force or military under his authority; as such, he would likely be swept from office in days were it not for the US troops that protect him. Indeed, he is even surrounded by US controlled bodyguards, as the domestic forces have proven too unreliable to protect him because of disloyalty. Karzai is really just a figurehead behind which real power is wielded by the Communist/Uzbek/Tajik Northern Alliance, along with a ragtag group of druglords assorted Taliban allies that control the countryside in most areas.
The US Congressional Research Service just revealed that it costs a staggering $1 million per annum to maintain 1 US soldier in Afghanistan. Keep in mind too that this does not include the mammoth cost of 24/7 logistical air and naval support, bribes to Afghan and Pakistani politicians and tribal leaders, depreciation of equipment, or building and maintaining bases in country. As I pointed out the other day here, the costs are NOT SUSTAINABLE in the long term. Maintaining a semblance of geopolitical/tactical advantage over the other great powers in the region is not worth the great cost.
UPDATE: The NY Times reports (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/28/world/asia/28inte l.html?_r=2) this morning that Hamid Karzai's brother is directly profiting off of the Afghan drug trade and is a CIA asset as well. Considering that Walid Karzai (H. Karzai's brother) was intimately involved in his brother campaign efforts, which included ballot stuffing and setting up fake polling stations, it makes me wonder if Karzai himself is benefiting off of the drug trade as well. Considering that the importation of poppy seed from Afghanistan has increased a whopping 2,000% since Karzai took over, there's no doubt that they're willfully permitting this to go on.
