UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2009. Another sex scandal in this district caused it to change politics again. Tom Rooney (R) crushed incumbent Democrat Tim Mahoney in 2008 with 60% of the vote. McCain won 52% of the vote in this district in 2008. Rooney was born in 1970 and is Catholic.

UPDATED OCTOBER 15, 2008: There must be something in the water in Central Florida. On October 13, 2008, ABC News reported that Mahoney had agreed to a $121,000 payment to a former mistress who worked on his staff and
was threatening to sue him. You well remember, gentle readers, that Mahoney suceeded Mark Foley (R) who had his own sex scandal. The GOP may well pick up this seat.

UPDATED COLUMBUS DAY, 2008: Although this is a district that leans Republican, the Democrats should hold it in 2008 because of incumbent Tim Mahoney and the flagging McCain camaign in Florida. The Dems grabbed this seat in 2006 because of the Mark Foley pederast scandal.

UPDATED AFTER 2006 ELECTIONS: The Democrats picked up this seat by about 1% of the vote following the Mark Foley fiasco a few weeks before the election. Tim Mahoney (D) was the winner.

Mahoney was born in 1956 and is United Methodist.


UPDATE: This is the district of the latest pederast to be rooted out of Congress, the un-lamented Mark Foley. This could be the straw that breaks the camel's back and ensures that the Democrats win control of the House.

This is more marginal territory in southern Florida where Bush won 54% of the vote in 2004.

Mark Foley first won in 1994 but has won easily in all his elections. He was born in 1954 and is Catholic.

By

What is Mark Foley's favorite time? When the big hand touches the little hand....

Mark Foley's precipitous fall from power is one of the biggest political stories we have seen down here in Florida in many years. It's one which might even have national implications, especially within the leadership of the GOP and their ability to hold onto Congress this November. Mark Foley, one of the most powerful members of Congress, resigned last week amidst a scandal involving e-mails and text messages which he sent to underage male congressional pages which were sexually explicit. The key question that's being asked now is not necessarily whether the seat will stay Republican (it probably won't), but whether and when exactly did GOP Congressional leadership find out about this. Reports indicate that the House Majority leader along with the rest of the leadership already had known about the behavior a year ago, and essentially just told Foley to stop it without taking action! That seems to suggest that they were trying to protect him. More broadly, it seems to me that this isn't so much about Foley (who was actually a champion of protecting children from such behavior!) as it is about the handling of the situation. It's bad enough that 4 weeks from a crucial election, the GOP has a Congressman resign over such a scandal, but that the leadership tried to cover it up! The Democrats are seizing on this by calling for investigations and for some Republicans to resign their leadership posts. Most of the GOP caucus in Congress are distancing themselves from Foley and the leadership, claiming that they all need to be held to account--obviously correctly so. Their concern is that this can spin out of control, leading to a Democratic avalanche in the fall; for the voters will ultimately buy their argument that change is needed in Washington. Many of those leaders, like Deborah Pryce in Ohio and Mark Reynolds in New York, were already in tough races, and now their bids may be more complicated by the scandal. And like I mentioned before, Mark Foley's seat may be up for grabs. The problem is that the ballots are already all printed out with Foley's name on them, and it's too late for the Republicans to name a candidate to put on the ballot. They're going to try to run a candidate in his stead, but in order for the people to vote GOP for that seat, they're going to have to punch Foley's name, something they're not willing to do. The seat leans Republican, but Kerry got about 47% in Foley's district last year, so it can go Democratic very easily. The main problem though for Republicans isn't this seat; rather, it may be the scandal that comes out of this. It is morally outrageous that the Republican leadership would try to cover up instances of child molestation from one of their top leaders. They were already on shifty ground to begin with, but if it spins out of control, the composition of Congress may be very different in January 2007, especially within the GOP leadership, not to mention control of Congress.

Wasn't he on Dateline: To Catch a Predator?

One of the rare types who can reach across the isle without comprimising key values.