Paul Kennedy 2

Paul Kennedy made a lot of noise back in the late 1980s, with his claim that Japan and Germany would replace the US and Russia as the world's superpowers. By the late 1990s, his thesis looked rather embarassing. Kennedy was mistaken about the rise of Germany and Japan (except in the narrow sense of high-quality exports, especially cars). Also, he completely missed the fall of the USSR (he expected it to decline, not to fall) as well as the rise of China and the revival of the American economy in the 90s. However, the weaknesses Kennedy identified in the US of the late 80s-a declining industrial base, over-spending by the federal government, massive deficits, a resentful Latin America, and general 'imperial overstretch'-all look rather prescient nowdays.