RateItAll: The Opinion Network

His support of the surge will put him in or shut him out. That missions success and his are joined at the hip.

Disappionting, in many respects he seems like a Democrat, rather have him than Hillary in the WH !

I have issues with him, but he's underrated. . .charismatic, experienced, grounded. . .too bad he's on the wrong side of the Iraq scandal (that's exactly what it is) and it makes intelligentsia cringe to watch him kiss Fundemental-Gay-For-Christ-Ass. . .still, a force to be reckoned with. . .

Some have crowned John McCain the heir apparent to George W. Bush, but I personally don't think he stands much of a chance. Some think that just because he has more money and a stronger organization than most other candidates on the field, primarily because he never dismantled his field operation from the 2000 campaign, that he has the best shot, but his support among GOP primary voters is tentative at best, and outright hostile at worst. In recent months, Senator McCain has been trying to mend fences with the conservative base, which doesn't really trust him due to his lack of support for tax cutting and other priorities. McCain's main tactic though has been to play up his support of the War in Iraq and its objectives as articulated by the Bush administration. But there are political pitfalls to doing so at this point in time, most namely, he is going against not only popular opinion in the country, but common sense public policy.

He can say that he's being brave in going against public opinion by suggesting essentially that the status-quo is working in Iraq, and that we only need to re-inforce our trenches to reach "victory", which is an undefined objective at this point to McCain and other neo-conservatives. Paradoxically, he is not being an iconoclast this time, but rather is supporting the status-quo, which is clearly not working.

If he continues to back the Bush administration too long on this one, it will backfire. The Senator's posture as an iconoclast, or a "maverick" will be severely diminished when it comes time for the primary. A true "maverick" is independent minded, someone who makes their political decisions on the facts and not posturing or ideology. McCain here is clearly kow-towing the neo-conservative line on Iraq and the Middle East, policies which have been discredited time and time again. GOP voters in my opinion won't buy it. Why would they enter into a loveless marriage with McCain, when he's clearly losing his support among the same middle of the road voters which previously consisted of his base? He doesn't have the support of moderates, and conservatives don't trust him, so McCain is essentially facing a political dead-end here. McCain, despite his lead in the polls today, will likely not be the nominee for the Republican Party.