Obama has had some electoral success primarily because he has support from a couple of key sectors of the Democrat electorate: upper-middle class liberals, intellectuals and blacks have all been strongly behind Obama. But union members, working class people and Latinos have all been strongly behind Hillary. Of the two contending constituencies, Hillary's offers a more reliable base of support. Therefore, I anticipate that she will win the nomination. However, Obama does have enough support to give Hillary a strong race. Obama's best hope is that John Edwards stays in the race and divides up Hillary's core support, much like what happened in South Carolina.

Eh, its just one state and I've always thought they blow this one out of proprtion...

UPDATE: See, he's mortal. I'd take *gags a bit* Hillary over his ass, but if either has to take on McCain my vote is settled.

UPDATE:  Today is January 9. 2008, the day after the New Hampshire Primary, and the times, they are NOT achangin', I see.  The old guard showed up at the polls and pulled it out for Hillary.  The young insurgent types for Obama stayed home.  That is the usual story in politics.

ORIGINAL COMMENT:  I made a prophecy on January 3, 2008, that Hillary would win in Iowa, that the union vote would pull her through there, and that the young people would not turn out in sufficient numbers to push Obama over the top. I was wrong on all THREE counts. Maybe the times they are a changin'.

Significant? Not yet. Was it surprising that Obama won a Midwestern state? Not really. Sure, I like Obama, though I accept fitman's point that he's really a Clintonian moderate rather than a progressive; see also Harper's "Obama, Inc." a few months back. I'm realistic enough to know, though, that any major nominee will need to make a rapprochement with the corporate interests.

  Obama's win is significant, but not deeply so.  The times ain't a-changin' all that much.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060626/sirota

http://tinyurl.com/22p85p

  Obama motivates young people like Kennedy in 1960.  This has the potential to greatly expand the numbers of registered democrat voters who actually vote, as Obama's message resounds with young adults like nobody's I've seen before.  The Obama/Hillary eclipse was amusing to watch, but with Edwards (and his idiotic, two-Americas, bring-the-troops-home-now, spending?  what excessive spending message) also eclipsing Hillary I look at democrats in Iowa in a very different light.  It's hard to recognize cataclysmic change when you're adjusting to today's currents.  We'll see, but this is how something small can lead to something very big. 

This will only truly be a big event if it helps Obama win the Democratic nomination for the Presidential election. This is a non-story if he can't convert this early win into the nomination.

Significant, but not as big a deal (yet) as people think. . .CS law #48 - "Hillary is a smokescreen for the real democratic candidate". . .plus, Iowans aren't the audience that buys into what Hillary is selling. . .Obama's win is big, but the truth is the Iowa and NH noise is somewhat overrated when we historically look at the end results of past winners and losers. . .I didn't think Obama would win because Americans simply don't vote for the smartest guy in the room. . .but let's not lose sight of the fact that it's waaay too early. . .

This is a big blow to Hillary. She campaigned hard in Iowa, and it must be tough for her to see Obama gaining momentum. The longer Obama sticks around, and the more he can damage Hillary's aura of inevitability, the better his chances become. He took an important first step today.