RateItAll: The Opinion Network

In the longrun, it isn't going to make a difference because what will be, will be. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

This was a significant victory for McCain. A lot of times, elections are games of momentum. Those who are not committed to any one candidate jump at the last minute towards the candidate who seems to have "wind beneath the sails". Right now, McCain is that candidate. Florida showed that he could win in a closed Republican primary, where independents could not vote. Granted, he clearly benefits from a split conservative field, but nevertheless, a win is a win.

Still some conservatives like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity claim that the party would be destroyed if they nominated McCain. Who in their right minds would believe that? McCain is clearly the strongest general election candidate in the race right now.

Think about this; polls right now suggest that California would vote for McCain over Hillary and Obama if the election was held today. California hasn't voted Republican in 20 years in a presidential election! McCain would expand the party's base of support. He does well in the Northeast too and he still retains support in the South. Indeed, it's presumable that McCain could rack up really solid numbers in the general election, a solid national mandate. Everybody is saying that the Republican Party is doomed in 2008, but frankly I don't see that, especially if McCain is the nominee.

I get the impression that some conservatives would rather lose to Hillary than to have McCain as President. If Huckabee or Romney are the nominees, the party will almost definitely lose in 2008. They're not bad candidates, but their base of support isn't strong enough to win a general election. Guess why the party establishment is doing the smart thing by holding their noses and voting for McCain? The GOP in general doesn't like McCain, yet they know that he gives them their best shot. And for whatever its worth, McCain probably is a stronger conservative than either Romney or Huckabee. Romney has a more socially liberal record than Giuliani, although he is a late convert to social conservatism on a few key issues. Huckabee would likely be a big spending President should he be elected, hardly a conservative position. McCain on the other hand has a solid record on both social and economic issues, one that is fairly compatible with the mainstream of the party. Because he bucks the party on a few issues like global warming, he is seen as the maverick in the race. That just tells you how perception can trump reality in these political races!

This was a hard fought win for McCain, and he certainly looks like the one to beat going into Super Tuesday. McCain's campaign was left for dead a few months ago - the Florida victory caps an amazing turnaround.